Dairy products in the EU: How production will change by 2035

The European Commission's agricultural outlook for 2024-2035 forecasts a slight decrease in the EU's milk production, from 123 million tonnes in 2022-2024 to 117 million tonnes in 2035, due to environmental policies leading to a reduction in dairy herds. Despite this, Poland and other regions may see an increase in milk production. The EU is expected to maintain its position as the world's largest dairy exporter, sharing the market with New Zealand and the US. There will be a shift towards higher value exports, with cheese, whey, and butter expected to grow in export terms at rates similar to the past decade. Cheese will remain the EU's flagship dairy export product, with consumption expected to slightly increase despite recent inflation.

This is stated in the "EU Agricultural Outlook 2024-2035", prepared by the European Commission. It is noted that regional differences in the development of milk production in the EU give reason to speak about the potential for a continuation of the trend of increasing milk production, for example in Poland. At the same time, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark, which were previously the driving force of increasing milk production, are now facing constraints. Overall, the EC expects milk production in 2035 to be 117 million tonnes compared to 123 million tonnes in 2022-2024. Milk yields are expected to grow by 0.9% each year until 2035. Stricter national environmental policies in livestock farming (reduction of nitrogen emissions) are projected to lead to a reduction in dairy herds of 11% by 2035 compared to the average for 2022-2024. The EU will maintain its position in global export markets. In particular, the EU and New Zealand will remain the world’s two largest dairy ...