Canada: Wheat growers may see premium over durum

Grain industry analyst Neil Townsend forecasts a narrowing price spread between spring wheat and durum in 2024-25, with spring wheat potentially trading at a premium. This comes as Canadian and American farmers see increased planting and promising crop conditions, with Canadian growers expecting a potential double of last year's durum output and U.S. farmers expecting a significant increase in hard red spring wheat. Despite the positive outlook, Townsend anticipates price pressure from overseas due to expected increased production in Turkey, the European Union, and Russia.

The price spread between spring wheat and durum will likely narrow in 2024-25, says a grain industry analyst. In fact, this could be one of those rare years where spring wheat momentarily trades at a premium to durum, said GrainFox chief analyst Neil Townsend. Canadian farmers planted 6.36 million acres of the crop, a 5.5 per cent increase over last year, according to Statistics Canada’s June estimate. Their counterparts in the United States seeded 2.17 million acres, a 29 per cent bump, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. As well, the crops are looking fantastic on both sides of the 49th parallel. “We could get a crazy big yield if the weather holds the way it is holding right now,” said Townsend. It is feasible that Canadian growers could harvest 7.5 million tonnes of durum and U.S. farmers another 3.5 million tonnes, for a combined North American crop of 11 million tonnes, he said. That would be double last year’s output, ...