Brazil's 2025 row crop production outlook is bright

Brazil's 2024/25 agricultural season is expected to see record production of soybeans and corn, with favorable planting conditions and increased plantings across various commodities. Soybean production is projected to reach 166.2 million tonnes, up from 147.7 million tonnes in 2023/24, and corn production is predicted to yield 119.6 million tonnes, the second largest on record. The potential impact of the Trump 2.0 administration's trade agenda, including proposed tariffs on China, could further benefit Brazil by increasing the safrinha corn area in 2025 and providing a boost to farmer returns due to a weaker Brazilian real.

As the soybean and first crop corn planting programs wind down in Brazil under generally favourable seeding and plant establishment conditions, the 2024/25 season production outlook is pointing toward a huge harvest in 2025, with record soybean output looking a good bet at this early stage of the season. Rainfall over the first week of December favoured the central and south-central regions, reversing a dryer pattern that had set up late in November, with more intense falls rolling into southern Brazil late that week. Last week saw widespread rain across much of the country with heavier registrations in southern Brazil, largely eliminating lingering dry pockets. The only regional concerns for dryness in Brazil, albeit minor at this stage of the season, are in western Paraná, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Santa Catarina, and parts of Rio Grande do Sul. Most of those areas received welcomed rain over the past week, and there is more rain in the forecast. The soybeans in these ...